Odds Of Winning Blackjack Hands In A Row
Ignoring ties, the percentage of hands that you can expect to win when you play blackjack is about: a. When you ignore the 9 percent of the hands that tie, you can expect to win 48 percent of the hands dealt to you, and lose 52 percent. Notice that you will lose significantly more hands. The other poster reply assumes the probability of a Blackjack remains constant and we know it does not. But that does show it to be much more difficult than say 1 in 100 or even 1 in 1000. The more cards the dealer draws without an Ace or a 10 the higher the probability of you getting 3 in a row naturals. Odds and probabilities are a huge part of winning at blackjack, so if you want to win big money at the casino, you have to understand the game’s odds and probabilities. Jun 14, 2017 Using the 42.22% figure the odds of wining three specific hands in a row (such as the next three hands) 0.4222^3 = 0.07526 = 7.526 percent of the. This is why I don't gamble with any kind of serious money. I had over 5k in casino money and lost 20 hands in a row on black jack. I bet 250 at a time. I know how to play.and usually do well. The odds are just incredible.
- Odds Of Losing 9 Blackjack Hands In A Row
- Odds Of Winning Blackjack Hands In A Row 4
- Odds Of Winning Blackjack Hands In A Row One
- Odds Of Winning Blackjack Hands In A Rowing
Odds Of Losing 9 Blackjack Hands In A Row
Numbers Dont Lie
By Henry Tamburin
Dominator, who is my good friend and fellow blackjack instructor, will probably kill me when he reads this article. Hes always preaching to me that blackjack players 'dont want to know how the clock works, they just want to know what time it is, so dont bore them with a lot of numbers.' But Ive decided to risk life and limb and discuss some of the more important blackjack statistics in my column this month, because I believe it helps players better understand the fundamentals of winning blackjack strategies. Ive got to admit, however, that numbers are boring to most folks, so I crafted this article as a fun quiz (at least I hope you find it entertaining, as well as informative). So lets get going, and Dom, if you are reading this have mercy on me.
1.Ignoring ties, the percentage of hands that you can expect to win when you play blackjack is about:
a. 45 percent
b. 48 percent
c. 50 percent
Answer: b. When you ignore the 9 percent of the hands that tie, you can expect to win 48 percent of the hands dealt to you, and lose 52 percent. Notice that you will lose significantly more hands than you win. So how do you win money playing blackjack? For starters, the average amount of money that you win on the winning hands is slightly greater than a single betting unit because the latter are sometimes hands where you get a blackjack and are paid at 3-2, or you double down and win double the amount of your bet. Losing hands, on the other hand, often lose only a single betting unit. The result is that monetarily you will be close to, but not quite even when you play (this assumes that you use the basic playing strategy for all your hands). If you want to go a step further and win much more money on winning hands compared to the amount you will lose on losing hands, so that overall you show a gain, then youve got to learn card counting.
2.If you are dealt three consecutive hands, what is the chance that they will all lose, excluding ties?
Odds Of Winning Blackjack Hands In A Row 4
a. 1 percent
b. 14 percent
c. 30 percent
Answer: b. You have about a 14 percent chance of losing three hands in a row when you play blackjack. Surprised? Most players probably guess 1 percent because they figure the chance of this happening is very low. Well it isnt, so dont panic and abandon the basic playing strategy when it happens.
3.How frequently does a player get a blackjack?
a. Once every 15 hands
b. Once every 21 hands
c. Once every 30 hands
Answer: b. The game is 21 and you can expect to get a blackjack once in every 21 hands. This brings me to the point why I harp that you should never play any blackjack game that pays 6-5, instead of 3-2, for a winning blackjack. Suppose you play two hours worth of blackjack on one of the heavily advertised, $10 minimum, 6-5 single deck games. Lets assume you are dealt 100 hands per hour, so over the course of two hours you played 200 hands of blackjack. Getting a blackjack once every 21 hands means that you should theoretically have gotten about 10 blackjacks. Sometimes youll get more blackjacks in two hours of play, sometimes less, but on average youll get 10. Each of those blackjack hands cost you $3 on a 6-5 game (the difference between getting paid 3-2 vs. 6-5, or $12 instead of $15, for your $10 wager). So you forked over $30 to the casino for the privilege of playing a single deck game (yeah, right). Save your money and avoid playing any 6-5 single deck games.
4.How frequently does a basic strategy player bust?
a. Once every six hands
b. Once every eight hands
c. Once every ten hands
Answer. a. A basic strategy player can expect to bust about 16 percent of the time or once every six hands. When a player busts, he always loses. Not so with the dealer (see next question).
5.How frequently does the dealer bust?
a. One time out of every seven hands
b. Two times out of every seven hands
c. Three times out of every seven hands.
Answer: b. The dealer busts about 28 percent of the time, or about two times out of every seven hands. Unlike a player bust, the dealer often wins when she busts, because players who act first and bust automatically lose (this is how the house has a built-in edge in blackjack). The 28 percent is an average over all possible dealer upcards. In fact, the dealer will bust significantly more times when she shows a 2-6 upcard (about 42 percent with a 5 or 6 upcard), and much less with a 7 through Ace upcard (with an Ace, its only 17 percent after checking for a natural). Because the dealers chance of busting is higher when she shows a small upcard, you should not risk busting a 12-16 stiff hand and should always stand (with two exceptions - its slightly better to hit a 12 against a dealers 2 or 3). However, when the dealer shows a strong upcard from 7 though Ace and has a much lower risk of busting, you should be more aggressive and hit your stiff hands until your hand totals 17 or more (even if it means you risk busting).
6.You can expect your initial two-card hand to be a hard 12-17 about:
a. 30 percent of the time
b. 35 per cent of the time
c. 43 percent of the time
Answer: c. About 43 percent of the time youll be holding a 12 through 17, and the only way you can win is if the dealer busts, or you improve your hand. So any time you hold a 12 through 17 its bad news and you should expect to lose. In fact, approximately 85 percent of your financial losses occur with these hands. The best you can do when you are holding a 12 through 17 is to play your hand optimally using the basic playing strategy to minimize your losses.
7.The dealer has an Ace upcard. What is the chance she has a 10 in the hole for blackjack?
a. 15 percent
b. 24 percent
c. 31 percent
Answer: c. The dealer will have a ten four times out of 13, or roughly 31 percent of the time. The remaining 9 out of 13, or 69 percent of the time, the dealer wont have a 10 in the hole. When you make the insurance bet, you are betting that the dealer has a ten in the hole when she shows an Ace. Assume you make a $10 insurance wager. Four times youll win $20 on the insurance bet (2 to 1 payoff odds) for a total win of $80. The other nine times you will lose $10 on your insurance bet for a total loss of $90. In other words, you lost more than you won. Therefore, its wise to never make the insurance bet.
8.The edge that card counters have over the casino is approximately:
a. 1 percent
b. 10 percent
c. 50 percent
Answer: a. Most players are surprised at the tiny one percent edge that card counters have over the house. Oftentimes, depending upon the game and the card counting system being used, the card counters edge is even less. With an edge this small, it means in the short run, luck will play a great role in the fortunes of a card counter, even though he will show a profit in the long-run.
So how did you do on the questions? It really doesnt matter how many you got right or wrong, but whether or not I motivated you to play better. And I hope I did.
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Henry Tamburin is the Lead Instructor in the Golden Touch™ Blackjack course (www.goldentouchblackjack.com) and editor of the Blackjack Insider newsletter. For a free 3-month subscription to his blackjack newsletter with full membership privileges, visit www.bjinsider.com/free.
Blackjack has many wonderful qualities. It’s a game where your decisions matter. It’s also a game where you can get an edge over the casino (if you know how to count cards).
Most of all, it’s just plain fun.
But blackjack is more fun when you’re winning more often.
Luckily, it’s a game where the mathematically correct way to play each hand has already been figured out. Computer programmers have run millions of hands of blackjack through simulators to come up with the moves that have the highest expected value.
A word about that:“Expected value” refers to how much a bet is worth. In some situations at the blackjack table, the expected value of a specific decision is positive. It might be more positive than other positive decisions.
In some other situations at the blackjack table, you must choose between the lesser of several evils. If you have a stiff hand, the best you can do is go with the decision that loses you the least amount of money in the long run.
As luck would have it, you only have a handful of totals to make decisions about. The highest possible total you can have without busting is 21. The lowest possible total with 2 cards is 4.
In the post below, I’ll look at each possible total and how it could occur. Then I’ll explain how to play that total based on which cards it’s made of and what the dealer has as her face-up card.
All these explanations are based on basic strategy.
A Total of 21
When you have a total of 21, you should always stand. It doesn’t matter what cards make up that total. It doesn’t matter what the dealer’s up-card is.
You always stand with 21. Any other choice costs money.
A Total of 20
You’ll always stand with a total of 20, too, no matter what the cards are. It also doesn’t matter what the dealer’s face-up card is.
The reasoning behind this is clear. There’s only one possible total the dealer could have which will beat a 20, which means you’ll win with it most of the time.
You might need to decide whether to split a hard total of 20. If you have 2 cards of the same rank, you can put up another bet and start 2 hands using the cards in your hand as the first card of the 2 subsequent hands.
It seems like this might not be a bad idea. After all, any hand with a 10 as its first card is probably going to turn out okay.
It’s a mistake, though. Most of the time, you’ll wind up with 2 hands that aren’t as strong as your total of 20. There are more cards in the deck that aren’t worth 10 or 11 than there are cards which are worth 10 or 11.
A Total of 19
You will ALMOST always stand on a total of 19, regardless of which cards make up the total.
But there’s one exception:
If you have a soft total of 19—an ace and an 8—you’ll double down. But only if the dealer has a 6 showing.
In some casinos, you’re not allowed to double down on a soft total of 19. If that’s the case, you’ll just stand.
On any other total of 19, though, you’ll stand. It’s such a strong hand that it will beat anything except a total of 20 or 21 from the dealer.
But even if you suspect that the dealer has one of those totals, your odds of winding up with a worse hand are too good for it to be a smart move to take another card.
The only reason you double down against a dealer’s face-up 6 is because the dealer is so likely to bust that it’s worth the risk.
A Total of 18
If you have a total of 18 that’s made up of two 9s, you must decide whether to split your hand or not. Most of the time, you will split your hand, but there are exceptions.
You’ll split a pair of 9s if the dealer has a 6 or less showing. You’ll also split 9s if the dealer has an 8 or 9.
If the dealer has a 7, 10, or ace showing, you’ll stand.
If you have a total of 18 that includes an ace that can be counted as 1 or 11, you have a “soft” 18. If the dealer has a 6 or lower showing, and if the casino allows it, you’ll double down on this hand.
If the casino doesn’t allow you to double down on a soft 18, you’ll stand instead.
If the dealer has a 7 or 8, you’ll stand on a soft 18.
If the dealer has a 9, 10, or ace showing, you’ll hit a soft 18.
Being able to count the ace as 1 or as 11 gives you some flexibility with how you play this hand. The combination of the possibility to improve your hand and the possibility that the dealer will bust results in the possible doubling down decisions.
Any other total of 18 will be a hard total, and you’ll always stand on a hard total of 18.
A Total of 17
If you have an ace that counts as 1 or 11, you have a soft total of 17. In that case, you should double down if the dealer has a 3, 4, 5, or 6 showing. If the dealer has any other card showing, you should hit this total.
If you don’t have an ace, or if counting the ace as an 11 would bust you, you have a hard total of 17. It’s easy what to decide to do with a hard 17:
Always stand.
A Total of 16
Once you get down to the total of 16 or less, you’re getting into “stiff hand” territory. A stiff hand is one which is likely to bust.
It doesn’t matter, though.
There’s still only one correct way to play each stiff hand, too.
The first kind of total of 16 you should think about is a pair of 8s. You should always split a pair of 8s. The reasoning behind this should make sense. You’re trading a mediocre hand for 2 hands which are likely to improve. More cards in the deck will improve an 8 than will hurt it. Any ace, 10, or 9 will give you a better total than 16. (And there are 16 cards worth 10 in the deck, so that’s almost half the deck in total.)
The second kind of total of 16 to worry about is a soft 16. Again, this is a total where the ace can count as 1 or 11. You will NEVER stand on a soft 16.
You’ll double down on a soft 16 if the dealer has a 4, 5, or 6 showing. If the dealer has any other card showing, you’ll fold.
Finally, you need to know what to do with any other hard total of 16. You’ll stand if the dealer has a 6 or less showing. You’ll hit if the dealer has a 7 or higher showing.
If the dealer has a 6 or less showing, you’re hoping she’ll bust. Otherwise, you’re hoping to improve your hand so that you have a fighting chance.
A Total of 15
A soft total of 15 is easy to play. You’ll play it just like you would a soft total of 16, in fact. You’ll double down if the dealer has a 4, 5, or 6 showing. Otherwise, you’ll hit.
A hard total of 15 isn’t hard to play, either, although it’s a bummer of a hand. Again, you’ll play a hard 15 just like you would a hard 16. Hit if the dealer has a 7 or higher. Otherwise stand.
A Total of 14
If you have a pair of 7s, you need to decide whether to split. You will split if the dealer has a 7 or lower showing. If you don’t split, you’ll treat the hand as any other hard 14.
If you have a soft 14, you will never stand. You’ll double down if the dealer has a 5 or 6 showing. Otherwise, you’ll hit.
If you have a hard 14, you’ll play it just like a hard 15 or 16. Stand if the dealer has a 6 or less showing. Hit if the dealer has a 7 or higher showing.
A Total of 13
A soft total of 13 is played just like a soft 14. You’ll double down if the dealer has a 5 or 6. Otherwise, you’ll hit.
A hard total of 13 is played just like a hard 14, 15, or 16. Stand if the dealer has a 6 or less. Otherwise, hit.
Odds Of Winning Blackjack Hands In A Row One
A Total of 12
The first kind of 12 total to worry about is a pair of 6s. (You always consider whether to split first.) You should double down if the dealer has a 6 or lower showing. If not, you’ll treat the hand just like you would any other hard total of 12.
Next, you’ll think about a soft total of 12. This could mean you have a pair of aces. In that case, you always split. (Just remember—always split aces and 8s.)
There’s no other way to get a soft total of 12, so you’re left with the possibility of a hard 12. If that’s what you have, you stand against a dealer 4, 5, or 6. Otherwise, you hit.
A Total of 11
If you have an ace and a 10, you COULD consider that a soft total of 11. But really, you have a blackjack. Just accept your winning with grace.
On any other total of 11, you’ll double down. That’s an easy decision, because you have lots of cards which will increase your total to 21. There’s no real downside to doubling down on an 11, because it’s impossible to bust such a hand.
A Total of 10
You never split 5s. They’re always treated as a hard total of 10.
If you have a soft total of 10, you really have a soft total of 20, and I’ve already covered that. (Think about it.)
With a hard 10, which is really the only way you’ll ever have a total of 10, you’ll almost always double down. The only time you won’t double down is if the dealer has an ace or 10 showing. In that case, you’ll just stand. (You don’t want to put extra money into play because of the increased likelihood that the dealer will have a 21.)
A Total of 9
A hard 9 is played ALMOST exactly like a hard 10. You should double down if the dealer has a 3, 4, 5, or 6. Otherwise, hit.
A Total of 8
You never split a pair of 4s. (In fact, you can remember this rule—never spit 4s, 5s, or 10s.)
In fact, there’s only ONE way to correctly play a hard total of 8. Always hit.
A Total of 7
Always hit a hard total of 7.
Odds Of Winning Blackjack Hands In A Rowing
A Total of 6
If you have a pair of 3s, split if the dealer has a 7 or lower showing. Otherwise, just hit.
If you have any other hard total of 6, just hit the hand.
A Total of 5
Always hit a hard total of 5.
A Total of 4
If you have a pair of deuces, play it just like a pair of 3s. Split if the dealer has a 7 or lower showing. Otherwise, just hit.
Conclusion
That’s it.
You only have 18 possible starting totals in blackjack. Once you’ve learned how to play each of those totals correctly, you’ve mastered basic strategy.
Why is that a good thing to do?
If you’ve mastered basic strategy, the house edge for most blackjack games is between 0.5% and 1%, making it one of the best games in the casino.
If you misplay these hands, the house edge goes up. Most players are bad at basic strategy, by the way. If you look at the casino’s numbers, the average blackjack player is so bad that he’s facing a house edge of between 4% and 5%.
With those kinds of numbers, you might as well play craps or roulette. You don’t have to make any playing decisions with those games.
memorize basic strategy in this way.